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地球暖化科學研究報告
鼓勵此網誌：0
暖化速度，超乎想像！！
Breaking: The great ice age of 2008 is finally over -- next stop, Venus!
One month's worth of data laughable as proof of global cooling
14 Apr 2008, Posted by Joseph Romm
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/4/14/142951/644
A top NASA scientist just emailed me the breaking news: "The ice age expired!"
Even more shocking: the rate of warming this year has been just about unprecedented in the historical record -- even faster than I had predicted just last month based on the NASA data from February.
更震驚的是今年暖化的速度已經是歷史記錄中空前未有的快，快到超過我上個月依NASA二月份資料所預估的。
Just look at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies dataset. While January's land-ocean global temperature was a mere +0.12 degrees C above the the 1951-1980 average and the February anomaly was +0.26 degrees C -- the March anomaly was a staggering +0.67 degrees C.
．．．一月份的陸地、海洋全球溫度僅僅比1951-1980平均值增加了0.12度C，二月份異外地增加0.26度C，三月份更異外地令人吃驚增加0.67度C。
(Warning: the following chart is not suitable for children or those who believe in global cooling. Please cover their eyes since the 2008 data, plotted in red below, might give them nightmares.)
This leading NASA scientist was himself stunned by the "temperature derivative" -- geek speak for the rate of change. At this rate, I'm afraid we have only a couple of decades before the Earth becomes another Venus.
My advice to you: Hug your children, make love to your spouse, sell your beachfront property, and then spend your entire life savings as quickly as possible -- assuming, of course, that three months of data can be used for climate projections. And, heck, if one month's data is good enough to get stories on climate cooling from leading journalists at the Wall Street Journal ("Little Ice Age? Cold Snap Sparks Cooling Debate") and The New York Times ("Climate Skeptics Seize on Cold Spell"), three months ought to be enough for front page stories that change your entire life.
Our changing weather climate
When we first reported this story, the Earth was in the death grip of an Ice Age that had lasted an unprecedented four or five weeks, nearly one-millionth the duration of recent Ice Ages. Earlier this year, websites were trumpeting bleak headlines like "Solar Activity Diminishes; Researchers Predict Another Ice Age" or "Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming." Or, for those who prefer geek-talk over bleak-talk, it was time for an "Update on Falsification of Climate Predictions," as Roger Pielke, Jr. put it.
As noted above, even traditional media got suckered interested. I mean, who wouldn't take a month's data over a century's? What does it matter that, as NASA has explained:
"The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990" and 2007 tied with 1998 for Earth's second warmest year in a century.
專訪氣候變化專家斯特恩：低估了全球變暖的威力
2008年 4月 18日 星期五, TEUTERS
http://cnt.reuters.com/article/europeNews/idCNTChina-1001520080418
路透倫敦4月16日電---氣候變化專家尼古拉斯·斯特恩(Nicholas Stern)稱他18月前發布的有關經濟危機與20世紀30年代經濟大蕭條的對比報告低估了全球變暖的威力。
斯特恩在周三接受路透社採訪時稱近期的氣候考察顯示全球溫室氣體排放的速度正在加劇，對環境造成的影響比預計中還要嚴重。例如，越來越多的證據表明海容量趨於飽和，不能像過去那樣吸收同量的溫室氣體二氧化碳了。
“溫室氣體的排放量遠遠超出我們想象，而地球的吸收能力又低於我們想象，所以說溫室氣體帶來的隱患比一些保守的估計要大，氣候變化的步率似乎也加快了”，斯特恩在倫敦一次新聞發布會上表示。
斯特恩強調現在是需要歐盟等國家將抑制溫室氣體排放的許諾變成行動的時候。報告預計，按照目前的趨勢，在未來50年內全球平均氣溫將上升2-3攝氏度，受氣候變化影響全球人均消費額可能下降20%，經濟落後國家所受影響尤為嚴重。
但一些學者認為斯特恩誇大了氣候變化的破壞作用，斯特恩聲稱氣候變化造成的經濟損失至少是現在使用高價可持續能源開銷的20倍。
IPCC
聯合國政府間氣候變化工作小組(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)2007年公布的報告中沒有包含氣候變化造成的嚴重威脅的詳細內容，諸如海洋減少吸收二氧化碳等。
對此斯特恩告訴路透記者：“事物是在發展的，IPCC的報告可以理解也很明智，但如果你眼觀未來、發現危險，你自然就會提前防範”。(完)
翻譯：楊思涵 發稿：金紅梅
３月是世界地表記錄中最熱
March the warmest on record over world land surfaces
April 18, 2008, By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
http://www.physorg.com/news127720375.html
(AP) -- Planet Earth continues to run a fever. Last month was the warmest March on record over land surfaces of the world and the second warmest overall worldwide. For the United States, however, it was just an average March, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Thursday.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said high temperatures over much of Asia pulled the worldwide land temperature up to an average of 40.8 degrees Fahrenheit (4.9 degrees Celsius), 3.2 degrees (1.8 C) warmer than the average in the 20th century.
While Asia had its greatest January snow cover this year, warm March readings caused a rapid melt and March snow cover on the continent was a record low.
Global ocean temperatures were the 13th warmest on record, with a weakening of the La Nina conditions that cool the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Overall land and sea surface temperatures for the world were second highest in 129 years of record keeping, trailing only 2002, the agency said.
Warming conditions in recent decades have continued to raise concern about global climate change, which many weather and climate experts believe is related to gases released into the atmosphere by industrial and transportation processes.
The climate center said that for the 48 contiguous United States it was about average, ranking as the 63rd warmest March in 113 years of record keeping.
The average temperature for the U.S. in March was 42 degrees, 0.4 degrees below the 20th century mean.
The agency said only Rhode Island, New Mexico and Arizona were warmer than average, while near-average temperatures occurred in 39 other states. The monthly temperature for Alaska was the 17th warmest on record.
The snow pack declined in many parts of the West in March, but the Western snow pack remains the best in more than a decade thanks to heavy snowfall December through February.
For the month, nine states from Oklahoma to Vermont were much wetter than average, with Missouri experiencing its second wettest March on record.
Moderate to extreme drought remains in much of the Southeast despite rainfall in the middle of the month.
Complete analysis: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/mar/mar08.html
Breaking: The great ice age of 2008 is finally over -- next stop, Venus!
One month's worth of data laughable as proof of global cooling
14 Apr 2008, Posted by Joseph Romm
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/4/14/142951/644
A top NASA scientist just emailed me the breaking news: "The ice age expired!"
Even more shocking: the rate of warming this year has been just about unprecedented in the historical record -- even faster than I had predicted just last month based on the NASA data from February.
更震驚的是今年暖化的速度已經是歷史記錄中空前未有的快，快到超過我上個月依NASA二月份資料所預估的。
Just look at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies dataset. While January's land-ocean global temperature was a mere +0.12 degrees C above the the 1951-1980 average and the February anomaly was +0.26 degrees C -- the March anomaly was a staggering +0.67 degrees C.
．．．一月份的陸地、海洋全球溫度僅僅比1951-1980平均值增加了0.12度C，二月份異外地增加0.26度C，三月份更異外地令人吃驚增加0.67度C。
(Warning: the following chart is not suitable for children or those who believe in global cooling. Please cover their eyes since the 2008 data, plotted in red below, might give them nightmares.)
This leading NASA scientist was himself stunned by the "temperature derivative" -- geek speak for the rate of change. At this rate, I'm afraid we have only a couple of decades before the Earth becomes another Venus.
My advice to you: Hug your children, make love to your spouse, sell your beachfront property, and then spend your entire life savings as quickly as possible -- assuming, of course, that three months of data can be used for climate projections. And, heck, if one month's data is good enough to get stories on climate cooling from leading journalists at the Wall Street Journal ("Little Ice Age? Cold Snap Sparks Cooling Debate") and The New York Times ("Climate Skeptics Seize on Cold Spell"), three months ought to be enough for front page stories that change your entire life.
Our changing weather climate
When we first reported this story, the Earth was in the death grip of an Ice Age that had lasted an unprecedented four or five weeks, nearly one-millionth the duration of recent Ice Ages. Earlier this year, websites were trumpeting bleak headlines like "Solar Activity Diminishes; Researchers Predict Another Ice Age" or "Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming." Or, for those who prefer geek-talk over bleak-talk, it was time for an "Update on Falsification of Climate Predictions," as Roger Pielke, Jr. put it.
As noted above, even traditional media got suckered interested. I mean, who wouldn't take a month's data over a century's? What does it matter that, as NASA has explained:
"The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990" and 2007 tied with 1998 for Earth's second warmest year in a century.
專訪氣候變化專家斯特恩：低估了全球變暖的威力
2008年 4月 18日 星期五, TEUTERS
http://cnt.reuters.com/article/europeNews/idCNTChina-1001520080418
路透倫敦4月16日電---氣候變化專家尼古拉斯·斯特恩(Nicholas Stern)稱他18月前發布的有關經濟危機與20世紀30年代經濟大蕭條的對比報告低估了全球變暖的威力。
斯特恩在周三接受路透社採訪時稱近期的氣候考察顯示全球溫室氣體排放的速度正在加劇，對環境造成的影響比預計中還要嚴重。例如，越來越多的證據表明海容量趨於飽和，不能像過去那樣吸收同量的溫室氣體二氧化碳了。
“溫室氣體的排放量遠遠超出我們想象，而地球的吸收能力又低於我們想象，所以說溫室氣體帶來的隱患比一些保守的估計要大，氣候變化的步率似乎也加快了”，斯特恩在倫敦一次新聞發布會上表示。
斯特恩強調現在是需要歐盟等國家將抑制溫室氣體排放的許諾變成行動的時候。報告預計，按照目前的趨勢，在未來50年內全球平均氣溫將上升2-3攝氏度，受氣候變化影響全球人均消費額可能下降20%，經濟落後國家所受影響尤為嚴重。
但一些學者認為斯特恩誇大了氣候變化的破壞作用，斯特恩聲稱氣候變化造成的經濟損失至少是現在使用高價可持續能源開銷的20倍。
IPCC
聯合國政府間氣候變化工作小組(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)2007年公布的報告中沒有包含氣候變化造成的嚴重威脅的詳細內容，諸如海洋減少吸收二氧化碳等。
對此斯特恩告訴路透記者：“事物是在發展的，IPCC的報告可以理解也很明智，但如果你眼觀未來、發現危險，你自然就會提前防範”。(完)
翻譯：楊思涵 發稿：金紅梅
３月是世界地表記錄中最熱
March the warmest on record over world land surfaces
April 18, 2008, By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
http://www.physorg.com/news127720375.html
(AP) -- Planet Earth continues to run a fever. Last month was the warmest March on record over land surfaces of the world and the second warmest overall worldwide. For the United States, however, it was just an average March, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Thursday.
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said high temperatures over much of Asia pulled the worldwide land temperature up to an average of 40.8 degrees Fahrenheit (4.9 degrees Celsius), 3.2 degrees (1.8 C) warmer than the average in the 20th century.
While Asia had its greatest January snow cover this year, warm March readings caused a rapid melt and March snow cover on the continent was a record low.
Global ocean temperatures were the 13th warmest on record, with a weakening of the La Nina conditions that cool the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Overall land and sea surface temperatures for the world were second highest in 129 years of record keeping, trailing only 2002, the agency said.
Warming conditions in recent decades have continued to raise concern about global climate change, which many weather and climate experts believe is related to gases released into the atmosphere by industrial and transportation processes.
The climate center said that for the 48 contiguous United States it was about average, ranking as the 63rd warmest March in 113 years of record keeping.
The average temperature for the U.S. in March was 42 degrees, 0.4 degrees below the 20th century mean.
The agency said only Rhode Island, New Mexico and Arizona were warmer than average, while near-average temperatures occurred in 39 other states. The monthly temperature for Alaska was the 17th warmest on record.
The snow pack declined in many parts of the West in March, but the Western snow pack remains the best in more than a decade thanks to heavy snowfall December through February.
For the month, nine states from Oklahoma to Vermont were much wetter than average, with Missouri experiencing its second wettest March on record.
Moderate to extreme drought remains in much of the Southeast despite rainfall in the middle of the month.
Complete analysis: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/mar/mar08.html
