鼓勵此網誌：1
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本文同步刊登於環境資訊電子報
鼓勵或威脅人們生育，用補充更多的人口來解決問題是短視近利、毫無遠見的作法。因為，所謂的「問題」可能被錯誤的定義，報章媒體總將「人口成長減緩」和「高齡化社會」等同於成「問題」的本身，這是非常沒有邏輯的講法，也因此，政府也只能生出「以人補人」這樣完全沒有創意的解決方案。
我們的世界充滿著棘手的環境問題，讓專家學者以及政策的制訂者傷透腦筋，總想不出完美的解決方法。世界上的確沒有完美的解決方案，我常常覺得，許多環境問題的源頭就在於人口太多。沒有人不知道，自從工業革命以來，尤其是農業綠色革命以降，地球人口爆炸性的成長，在全球的尺度上，許多學者專家知道人口問題是導致全球環境問題的重要因素，而且相關文章中經常可以看到這樣的論述，奇怪的是，當落到國家政策的層次上，居然少有人提到人口在環境問題上扮演的關鍵性角色。
在台灣，環境問題和相關解決方案當然不乏專家學者和環保團體的討論和鼓吹，人口過剩絕對是導致台灣眾多環境問題的根源，卻鮮有人鼓吹台灣應該要減少人口。我們目前面對的現狀是，一個蕞薾小島有著超過兩千兩百萬的人口，台灣地小人稠，先天上就有許多土地不適合人居住，人口攀升的結果是許多不該住人的地方也被開發了，例如順向坡的山坡地、斷層帶、濕地與紅泛平原等，連環境敏感帶都被人口盤據，污染問題怎麼可能不嚴重？天災來臨時損失怎麼可能不慘重？
台灣的人口密度在世界各國排名第二高，我們的人口已經超出負荷，政府為何想不通，一邊喊著永續發展，一邊還要拼命鼓勵生育？一些所謂的專家和媒體每隔一陣子就發佈統計數字，搞出「多少個年輕人得養多少個老人」、「人口減少稅基就會減少」、「人口少國力就會縮減」等等似是而非的謬論，來威脅年輕人一定要「增產報國」。
鼓勵或威脅人們生育，用補充更多的人口來解決問題是短視近利、毫無遠見的作法。因為，所謂的「問題」可能被錯誤的定義，報章媒體總將「人口成長減緩」和「高齡化社會」等同於成「問題」的本身，這是非常沒有邏輯的講法，也因此，政府也只能生出「以人補人」這樣完全沒有創意的解決方案。
「人口成長減緩」和「高齡化社會」是趨勢，是許多後續現象的驅動力，趨勢可能會帶來正面或負面的後果，但趨勢的本身不是實質後果。專家學者應該要更精確的定義所謂的「問題」，然後根據問題來尋求解決方案，讓趨勢產生正面的結果。
更何況，台灣不過是人口成長減緩而已，人口的總量還是繼續增加中。但不管人口成長的腳步快慢如何，只要人口持續增加就是令人憂心的問題。在我看來，台灣起碼要減少一半以上的人口，生活與環境品質才能提升，才有可能談永續發展。台灣的情況跟人口已經呈現負成長的西歐與北歐是完全不同的，至少那些國家的人口密度遠小於台灣，我們沒有本錢增加人口。
台灣政府此時不但不該用一些奇奇怪怪的手段鼓勵生育（還好沒有效），反而應該提倡不生育，但提供想生育的夫婦適當的國家照顧，以確保下一代的家庭教育品質。在台灣人口成長減緩、但還沒有進入負成長的這段時間，政府該做的是做好準備，特別是在老人照護系統、教育系統、以及產業上做調整，讓我們可以不用經過太大的社會陣痛來迎接人口負成長的未來。
西雅圖凹凸鏡的相關文章：「增產」真的能「報國」嗎？
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以下轉載Scientific American網站上的一篇文章供參考。原文出處：http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=DEAF205F-E7F2-99DF-35C3B60FE3CC788B&sc=I100322
The World Is Not Enough for Humans
Humanity's environmental impact has reached an unprecedented scope, and it's getting worse
Despite some successes—such as the Montreal Protocol's 95 percent reduction in chemicals that damage the atmosphere's ozone layer and a rise in protected reserves of habitat to cover 12 percent of the planet—humanity's impact continues to grow. For example:
Biodiversity—The planet is in the grips of the sixth great extinction in its 4.5-billion-year history, this one largely man-made. Species are becoming extinct 100 times faster than the average rate in the fossil record. More than 30 percent of amphibians, 12 percent of birds and 23 percent of our own class, mammals, are threatened.
Climate—Average temperatures have climbed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.76 degree Celsius) over the past century and could increase as much as 8.1 degrees F (4.5 degrees C) over the next unless "drastic" steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from, primarily, burning fossil fuels. Developed countries will need to reduce this globe-warming pollution by 60 to 80 percent by mid-century to stave off dire consequences, the report warns. "Fundamental changes in social and economic structures, including lifestyle changes, are crucial if rapid progress is to be achieved."
Food—The amount of food grown per acre has reached one metric ton, but such increasing intensity is also driving rapid desertification of formerly arable land as well as reliance on chemical pesticides and fertilizers. In fact, four billion out of the world's 6.5 billion people could not get enough food to eat without such fertilization. Continuing population growth paired with a shift toward eating more meat leads the UNEP to predict that food demand may more than triple.
Water—One in 10 of the world's major rivers, including the Colorado and the Rio Grande in the U.S., fail to reach the sea for at least part of the year, due to demand for water. And that demand is rising; by 2025, the report predicts, demand for fresh water will rise by 50 percent in the developing world and 18 percent in industrialized countries. At the same time, human activity is polluting existing fresh waters with everything from fertilizer runoff to pharmaceuticals and climate change is shrinking the glaciers that provide drinking water for nearly one third of humanity. "The escalating burden of water demand," the report says, "will become intolerable in water-scarce countries."
The authors—388 scientists reviewed by roughly 1,000 of their peers—view the report as "an urgent call for action" and decry the "woefully inadequate" global response to problems such as climate change. "The amount of resources needed to sustain [humanity] exceeds what is available," the report declares.
"The systematic destruction of the earth's natural and nature-based resources has reached a point where the economic viability of economies is being challenged," Achim Steiner, UNEP's executive director, said in a statement. "The bill we hand our children may prove impossible to pay."
